If abortion is a key issue during the next U.S. Supreme Court confirmation battle, then, pro-lifers may have an edge with the American public, a new Gallup poll suggests.
If abortion is a key issue during the next U.S.
Supreme Court confirmation battle, then, pro-lifers may have an edge
with the American public, a new Gallup poll suggests.
The poll of 1,005 adults shows that pro-lifers are
more likely than pro-choicers to believe that the next Supreme Court
justice must agree with them on abortion. Although there is no opening
on the court, many observers believe Chief Justice William Rehnquist
will step down this year.
Gallup asked the public “how important” it is that
the next nominee to the high court share their views on abortion.
Forty-five percent said “very important,” 31 percent “somewhat
important,” 15 percent “not too important” and 8 percent “not important
at all.”
Among the group saying it is “very important,” 53
percent are pro-life, 39 percent pro-choice. That could prove
significant when pro-life and pro-choice groups ask their constituents
to contact their senators.
“Clearly, pro-life supporters have the edge in terms
of their interest in the abortion position of future Supreme Court
nominees, …” Gallup spokesperson Lydia Saad said. “Theoretically,
this should translate into more pro-life communication to members of
the U.S. Senate, larger pro-life rallies supporting or opposing a
nominee and more pro-life support at election time.”
However, Saad adds that the pro-choice contingent
that cares about the appointments is not insignificant – “and it will
undoubtedly wage a pitched battle of its own.”
Among all adults, 48 percent say they are
pro-choice, 44 percent pro-life. Nevertheless, the pro-life camp
appears to have more energy.
Women comprise 61 percent of the “very important”
group. Among those women, 55 percent are pro-life, 39 percent
pro-choice – a finding that counters the claims of some that women tend
to be overwhelmingly pro-choice. Among the men in the “very important”
group, 50 percent are pro-life, 39 percent pro-choice.
Abortion is at the heart of the current debate about
Senate judicial filibusters. In 1973, the Supreme Court issued its Roe
v. Wade decision legalizing abortion. Since then pro-lifers have been
working to see it overturned.
Currently, pro-lifers have three solid votes on the
court – Rehnquist, Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas. Anthony Kennedy,
has sided with pro-lifers on some issues. However, Rehnquist is
battling cancer and may retire this year. Others may follow. Including
Rehnquist, two justices are in their 80s, and two more are in their 70s.
Even though a plurality of Americans consider
themselves pro-choice, pro-lifers appear to have made progress in the
past decade.
In the poll, 53 percent said abortion should be
“legal under certain circumstances,” 23 percent said it should be
“legal under any circumstances” and 22 percent said it should be
“illegal in all circumstances.”
But in September 1995, the numbers were much
different – 31 percent saying abortion should always be legal and only
12 percent saying it should always be illegal. However, later that
year, the U.S. House and Senate passed a bill banning partial-birth
abortions, which was vetoed by President Bill Clinton.
The debate about the late-term procedure – in which
a baby is partially delivered then aborted – may have swayed some. By
July 1996, the numbers began to change, with 25 percent – a drop of six
percentage points – saying abortion always should be legal.
Since then, the “legal under any circumstances”
category has not reached 30 percent – though it was in the 30s in every
poll from 1990 to 1995.
The Gallup spokesperson did not mention
partial-birth abortion as being a cause for the changing numbers but
did note the shift in public position.
“The percentage saying abortion should be illegal in
all circumstances has been inching up in the last few years, … but
this is the first time since 1985 that this extreme anti-abortion view
has been essentially at parity with the extreme pro-abortion rights
position,” Saad noted.
She added that the country views abortion
differently than it did the last time a Republican president nominated
a justice for the Supreme Court.
“Compared to the early 1990s (when David Souter and
Clarence Thomas were nominated), … Americans today are much less
likely to say abortion should be legal under any circumstance, and more
likely to say that it should be illegal in all circumstances. (BP)